BUSINESS • Jun 09, 2020
Will head lice make us live a 100 years??
I read this really awesome story some time ago. I previously have heard the moral multiple times, but this story captures the essence of it.
This is a real story…
Scientists have a startling finding. People who have more head lice are relatively healthier than people with fewer head lice.
Scientists are quick to start studying the potential health benefits of head lice. Many contended that lice could keep people healthier. Some even introduced more lice into sick people’s heads so that it would improve their health. So, lice can really keep you healthy... Right??
Well, Not so fast...
Obviously, lice can not keep you any healthier than… Say, the color of the dress you are wearing.
The real reason for this anomalous finding is that lice are sensitive to body temperature. Lower body temperature, higher lice, and vice versa. Since people who are sick tend to have higher body temperature, they had fewer lice. Healthy people had a relatively lower body temperature and so they had more lice.
Bottom line, Correlation is not causation
So, what gives??
If you are gullible to this, then probably you are gullible to a lot of the stuff happening around. Most of you might have already felt that the world is increasingly going pro-DATA. People are showing data as evidence for everything happening around them and trying to make sense of the world with numbers.
For a second, let’s go back to my initial claim. I didn’t technically lie. I mean I didn’t explicitly say that louse keeps you healthy. If you fell for it, then you are the one who up with that conclusion.
Now, let’s look at some news you hear every day…
- Prime minister in a political rally, claimed: “Unemployment and poverty rate in our country is at a historic low and GDP levels are on an unprecedented high”.
- CEO of a company makes a public announcement “Since I was appointed as the CEO the company valuation went up by 25%”.
- Ever since the mayor announced his new crime reduction plans, the crime rate has plummeted*.
Or even more absurd things like…
- Ever since Virat Kohli switched from Nike to MRF bats he has been hitting more centuries.
- We built a home with precise accordance with Vasthu and we are living a prosperous life.
- My sister got married to a person who had a really good match in the jathagam with her and they are having a happy life.
I am not claiming there can be no causation (Just in the first 3 points). But we have to be wary of correlations. Adding statistical figures as the evidence for supporting a fact, adds a lot of credibility to the claim. That gives incentive for people to use data in underhand ways. If you are gullible to this fallacy, then you will probably be deceived multiple times a day via News channels, Instagram posts, Movies, etc. Better be wary of data before concluding anything.
The more important take away here is… Learn to mislead with data, it is going to help you big time, one day or the other. Don’t presume I deceive with data, I don’t. But it might help me one day too.
References
Freakonomics - It's an awesome book, I highly recommend reading it.
Author - Stephen J. Dubner, Steven Levitt
* Mayor example is cited from this book